The first part of this project will map the likely future external impulses that are particularly decisive for the performance of the Norwegian national climate strategy. We will analyse technological, demographical and international economic and political drivers, with particular attention to the consequences of EU’s climate and energy policy. The aim is to define and simulate a limited set of distinct scenarios where we vary the developments of external factors to form consistent storylines. Scenario experiments will be performed in collaboration with a wider set of researcher and users from public, private and political organisations. We will use two global models in team to construct consistent developments based on these storylines; one energy system model and one CGE model.
The second part of this project will both analytically and numerically investigate the severity of lock-in mechanisms caused by behavioural sluggishness. Examples of possible consumer response inertia can be habit formation, psychological mechanisms or network externalities that call for coordinated action in order to avoid lock-in. We will model alternative preferential structures that account for realistic social and psychological behavioural drivers.